An India Today report examines the growing risks of civil unrest in Iran, a nation at the centre of West Asian tensions. While the Iranian regime remains firmly in control, consolidating authority through a rally around the flag effect during external conflicts, the potential for fragmentation is rising. Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, public sentiment toward his son Mojtaba Khamenei remains unenthusiastic, though national unity temporarily secures the regime. A civil war in Iran could mirror or exceed Syria’s devastation. With a population of 92 million, Iran could see up to 25 million people displaced, compared to Syria’s 6 million from a population of 22 million. Neighbouring countries like Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan lack infrastructure to handle such numbers. Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil exports pass, adds global stakes. Ethnic divisions among Kurds, Azerbaijanis, and Balochs could accelerate fragmentation, destabilising the wider West Asian region.
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